What could happen to McLaren at the Australian GP this weekend?

After a nightmare pre-season, how could the Australian Grand Prix weekend go for McLaren?

They could win the race

They could…although it is highly unlikely. Both McLaren drivers are available for the race win at 80/1 with SkyBet making them rank outsiders, but surprisingly the bookies do favour them more than Toro Rosso, Lotus, Force India, Sauber and Manor. Given that the MP4-30 was the slowest car in Barcelona and only completed 380 laps during winter testing, it would be a considerable shock if either McLaren car finished in the points this weekend. As for the idea the team could actually win the race, if we are going to be that outlandish then we might as well discuss the likelihood of an alien invasion midway through the Grand Prix.

They are outside the 107% rule and aren’t allowed to race

The unthinkable worst case scenario for McLaren but an alarmingly realistic possibility after the Barcelona test, where the MP4-30's fastest lap time was 2.4 seconds adrift of the benchmark set by Mercedes. In dry conditions, pole position should be secured at Albert Park in about 85 seconds, giving McLaren approximately five seconds' leeway if they are to avoid the 107% cut-off. They should manage it, but if unreliability is once again an issue and a representative time hasn’t been set in any practice session either, could the stewards really permit McLaren to race?

They qualify on the back row

Imagine the mighty McLaren being out-qualified by minnows Marussia using a modified 2014 car. Unfortunately, that thought is a very real possibility if the team aren’t able to extract more from their Honda engine this weekend. If the MP4-30's pace in testing in Barcelona relative to the rest of the field is repeated in Melbourne then McLaren will surely start the season at the back of the grid alongside the likes of Will Stevens and Roberto Merhi.

 Formula 1

March 13, 2015

They run in mid-pack and both cars breakdown

Even during their recent disappointing campaigns, McLaren have at least managed to stay in the gap between the frontrunning teams and the small independent teams. Yet even if they avoid the ignominy of fighting with the Manors, it's difficult to foresee Jenson Button or Kevin Magnussen faring any higher than fighting with a Sauber for 15th place in Australia. And given that the car has yet to complete a race distance and has struggled just to reach double figures during a stint, completing 58 laps of Albert Park looks unlikely.

They use Australia as a glorified fourth pre-season test

This looks a likely scenario as the team try to rack up much needed mileage on the MP4-30 and the Honda power unit. Only Force India head to Australia with fewer laps done in their 2015 challenger – but then the VJM08 only ran over the final two and a half days in Barcelona!

Given the distance between Woking and Melbourne, transporting new parts out to test could prove an issue, but the three practice sessions should at least allow more time to work through any technical gremlins. If they can find a solid base, the team may then able to start experimenting with the MP4-30's set-up - a luxury they were denied during winter testing.

The fastest lap by each team during the two Barcelona tests